Mar 17, 2014 - The ever shrinking investor time horizon

The attention span of today’s investors give ADHD a bad name and has driven an obsession with the short term.  The average mutual fund holding period has fallen by 75% over the past 16 years.  For stocks the data is even more bizarre as the average holding period has fallen from 8 years in the 1960’s to 5 days today.  One of the consequences of such a short investment time horizon is that investors have begun to fear short-term market events and volatility as much or more than the factors that shape prospects for long-term economic and profit growth that drive stocks over the longer term.

As such, investor’s patience with performance has followed the same declining trend.  While this may seem like the right thing to do, a study by the Brandes Institute showed this obsession with the short term a bad idea. Some interesting data from their study shows

Every best performing (10 year out-performance of SP>3% annually), long-run fund have had periods of major under-performance.

o   The average worst 1 year period was ~20% under-performance (6-38% range)

o   The average worst 3 year period was ~10% under-performance/year (1-20% range)

o   73% of these top performers found themselves in the lowest decile at least once

These types of results are not just unique to individuals who buy and sell mutual funds. Boyal and Wahal did a study on 4000+ decisions regarding hiring and firing of investment managers by pension plan sponsors. The results uncovered the classic hallmarks of returns-chasing behavior.  The managers the sponsors tended to hire had an average out-performance of nearly 14% in the 3 years prior to hiring. After hiring those same manager’s performance was statistically insignificant … meaning their performance matched the benchmark.  No out-performance.  In contrast, those fired for performance reasons had underperformed by ~6% in the 3 years leading up to dismissal. However, in the 3 years after the firing, they outperformed by 5%.

This helps illustrate that 1) even the best long term performing money managers run into short term difficulties 2) Investors need to insure they keep their focus on the long term as short term reactions can have long term negative effects on their portfolios.

Mar 10,2014

“A weed is but an unloved flower.” - Ella Wheeler Wilcox

We closed out 2013 with a bifurcated market. US stocks were the only place to be while the balance of the choices vying for your investment dollar were either ignored or beaten like that spider you found in your clothes drawer. As you can see in the chart below (2013 asset class performance) stocks were the only investment that ended the year higher (red). Commodities (purple) squeaked out a small loss, US bonds (pink) were shunned losing double digits while gold (light blue) was crushed.

A funny thing happened (at least so far) once we flipped the page on the New Year.  Through the first two months of the year it appears as if the 2013 losers have become this years darlings. Commodites and gold have outperformed stocks by almost 5x and bonds have also showed strength, doubling the returns of stocks.

While 2 months is not long enough to confirm a reversal of fortune, it appears as if 2014 is suggesting a US stock over-weighted portfolio, unlike the past 3 years, may not provide the best returns.

Feb 24, 2014

Part 3 in this series, this week I wanted to look at market breadth and see what, if anything, it is telling us. Market averages such as the Dow Industrials or S&P500 indices are the most readily available barometers for market conditions. Using charts, it is relatively straight-forward to determine the current trend, and to identify how long this trend has been in place. However, what is even more beneficial is to have an understanding of not only the price trend but the underlying strength of the individual stocks as this will help substantially in determining the likelihood of the trend changing and the relative levels of market risk. Breadth (participation) indicators were developed precisely with this task in mind: to determine the strength of a market trend by looking at its constituent stocks.  Since research has shown that the majority of an average stock’s future price move is due to the direction of the overall stock market, the importance of understanding what market breadth cannot be understated.

If all this is putting you to sleep because it’s too technical, a real simple way to think of this is a stock market can only continue to rise if the majority of the stocks that make up that market are rising. The converse is true too when the market is falling.  Since this series of blog posts is about analyzing market tops if you apply that understanding logically you would not expect a top to be reached until the majority of the stocks in the market are no longer rising and instead falling. While there are many different ways analysts slice and dice the internal market breadth data I am not going to go into detail here rather state that what is most important is trend of that data not each exact value.

The chart below shows the SP500 US stock index (in black) on the top and three different breadth indicators (in blue, green and red). In order to get a good level of confidence in interpreting market participation, I like to look at a few different breadth measurements in hopes they are all telling the same story. If they are, a yellow flag is raised and tells me more intense and frequent monitoring is required. In the case of the chart below, you can see the trends of all three measurements are declining. You should also notice the SP500 price trend is pointing UP. This is divergence and it is warning of the potential for lower stock prices. Either the trend of breadth continues to decline and the SP500 will eventually follow suit or we will need to see greater participation here in the coming weeks.

An interesting observation you can make about the chart is that during the recent correction over one third of SP500 stocks dropped below their 200 MA. This was the first time breadth readings dropped below 75% since late 2012. This shows just how strong the recent bull market has been. The question is, was this sell off an indication of something bigger to come or was it just another correction in the uptrend?

While this is a warning sign it does not mean to me it is time to get out of the market.  This is just one of a many indicators I watch. When the majority of them turn yellow or red and tip the scales convincingly to the side of the bears that becomes my trigger to take evasive action. Until then it doesn’t mean you shouldn’t consider taking some risk off the table due to the increased uncertainty and warning flags that are popping up. But, for now the trend is still up and until it changes it is important to respect it.

Equity-Market-Breadth1

Feb 17, 2014

Part 2 in this series, this week I wanted to dig into price reversal patterns that typically appear during market tops. Rising Wedges

The rising wedge is a bearish reversal pattern formed by two converging upward lines. To confirm a rising wedge, price must move between top and bottom lines and touch them each at least twice to confirm this pattern.

This pattern marks the shortness of buyers. This one is characterized by a progressive reduction of the amplitude of the waves. We would like to see trade volume confirm as each successive wave would bring lower volume such that at the end of pattern there are almost no buyers left confirming a bearish reversal.

Here is a graphical representation of a rising wedge:

And a real life example of how they can play out.

Here are some statistics about rising wedges:

- In 82% of cases, there is a downward exit - In 63% of cases, the target of the pattern is reached once the support broken - In 53% of cases, a pullback occurs - In 27% of cases, false breakout occur

Head and Shoulders

The head and shoulders pattern is one of the most common reversal formations. It is important to remember that it occurs after an uptrend and usually marks a major trend reversal when complete. While it is preferable that the left and right shoulders be symmetrical, it is not an absolute requirement. They can be different widths as well as different heights. Identification of neckline support and volume confirmation on the break can be the most critical factors. The support break indicates a new willingness to sell at lower prices. Lower prices combined with an increase in volume indicate an increase in supply. The combination can be lethal, and sometimes, there is no second chance return to the support break. As the pattern unfolds over time, other aspects of the technical picture are likely to take precedence.

Here is a graphical representation of a head and shoulders pattern:

And a real life example of how they can play out.

Here are some statistics about the head and shoulders pattern:

- In 93% of cases, there is a downward exit - In 63% of cases, the target of the pattern is reached once the neckline broken - In 45% of cases, a pullback occur on the neckline

Double (and Triple) Top

The double tops is a bearish trend reversal pattern that often marks the end of an uptrend and the start of a down trend. It consists of two consecutive peaks that reach a resistance level at more or less the same high value, with a valley separating the two peaks. The low of the valley is important for price projection purposes, but the shape that the peaks take is not important. Volume is also of importance, with the volume on the second peak preferably lower than the volume on the first peak. At times, the double top pattern can form a third top, creating a triple top pattern.

Here is a graphical representation of a double top pattern:

And a real life example of how they can play out.

Here are some statistics about the double top:

- In 75% of cases, there is a bearish reversal - In 71% of cases, the target of the pattern is reached once the neckline broken - In 61% of cases, a pullback occur

Where are we today?

From a longer term view, I had been closely watching the rising wedge form and noticed 2 weeks ago we broke down outside the pattern (see below) but subsequently have moved back inside.

On a shorter term view, the head and shoulders pattern I saw developing once we broke out of the wedge has since been invalidated since the symmetry between the right and left shoulders has been lost. Instead what you now see developing (in the chart below) is the possibility for a double/triple top.  You are never sure when patterns begin to form so it is important to follow them as the can morph over time. Exactly what just occurred over the past two week where we moved from a head and shoulders to double top.  The good thing is that double tops are one of the easiest patterns to manage because it becomes apparent very quickly whether or not it is valid, unlike head and shoulders where the pattern takes time to develop and be confirmed. We will likely know in the next couple of weeks, if not sooner, because once price moves above the prior high (the green dotted line in the chart below), the double top pattern becomes invalid as we have then created a higher high. As a result, near term concerns about a larger correction will have been significantly reduced and we are back to the prior bullish trend.

Jan. 27, 2014

At the start of every year I like to take the time and sketch out a game plan for the year.  Part of that includes identifying major areas of risk and creating a mental game plan on how to respond.  Two weeks ago, I identified interest rates as being one of my major concerns.  When I speak of interest rates I am really speaking of the FED as their open market operations add or subtract to the economic liquidity which helps set interest rates. Its this liquidity (either too much or little) not only has the effect they desire by controlling interest rates but an unintended consequence is its indirect effect on the prices of other assets, such as stocks. So when I hear the FED is reducing liquidity I become concerned as this move in the past has been the catalyst for a market correction. An article from one the Fathers of technical analysis, Tom Mclellan, came across my inbox recently where he does a wonderful job at capturing this relationship and I thought it worthy of presenting its highlights. There are a lot of different indicators and studies that technical analysts use, and all of those tools came into usage due to some degree of merit.  But the one factor which seems to be trumping everything else lately is what the Fed is doing with its QE program.

The chart below compares the SP500 to the total assets held by the Fed.  The plot is made up from the total of the Fed's Treasury holdings and its mortgage backed securities (MBS), which are sometimes referred to as "agency" debt products.  The agencies which that title refers to are Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac,

Putting the chart together this way helps us see just how important the Fed's purchases have been to the task of sustaining the bull market for stocks.  Whenever the Fed has decided to change the slope of the green line, the slope of the SP500 has also changed in a dramatic way.  That makes it such an important question to contemplate a "tapering" off in the rate of growth of Fed assets, or even an outright end to quantitative easing (QE).

The next chart also helps us see just how critical the Fed's actions were in bringing about the awful bear market of 2007-09.  Back then, the Fed just held Treasuries, and it did not start buying agency debt until January 2009.  The Fed's holdings of Treasury debt peaked in August 2007 at $790 billion, and over the next 17 months the Fed sold off more than $300 billion of those holdings.  That's right, in the middle of the worst liquidity crisis in decades, with banks folding and with Congress handing out tax rebates, the Fed was pulling liquidity OUT of the banking system.

When the Fed finally stopped pulling liquidity out of the system and started adding it back in again in early 2009, the market turned upward, and the banking system and economy started working their way back toward health again.

Given the now obvious importance of the Fed's actions on financial market liquidity, why did they decide in 2007 and 2008 to pull so much money out of the system by selling so much of their Treasury holdings during that bear market?  That will be a great question for the historians to uncover.  But what I can say is that the man who orchestrated and conducted those sales, the former president of the New York Fed, left that job in early 2009 to become the new Treasury Secretary.  So you can draw your own conclusions.

While the FED this month will begin slowing down the rate of stimulus (note I did not say stop completely or begin to withdrawal which has caused problems in the past) investors still must be concerned as one would expect at least some sort of impact to the economic bottom line. One reason to not be overly concerned is the FED understands it’s the rate of change that is most important and they have indicated any actions will be gradual in nature.  Since we are in uncharted territory (QE first started in 2010), knowing how the market will react to future FED changes is anyone’s guess.  As such, being prepared for anything and playing defense should be a top priority.