TROW - Broken support points to lower prices ahead

T.Rowe Price (TROW) is a stalwart in the mutual fund industry and has a spectacular (470% increase) run since the market bottom in 2009. It has a nice dividend, is a well run company and is worth of consideration in a long-term investors portfolio. As you can see in the long term weekly chart below, the solid blue line has provided support for the many pullbacks the stock has experienced during this entire bull run. 

Zooming in to a shorter term chart view below, some interesting action is occurring.

1)      The stock has been in a period of consolidation since November of last year, oscillating between support and resistance.

2)      There is a saying that from “false breaks come big moves” and as you can see, the stock tried many times to move above the resistance line and finally broke higher in June. It had a short stay above the line, peaked in July and has fallen back below that support-resistance line. This raised the first yellow warning flag

3)      The solid blue upward sloping line that has acted as support has just recently been breached. Yellow warning flag #2.

4)      We had divergence between momentum (falling) and price (rising) at the peak in July. Yellow warning flag #3.

5)      While not ideal, the dashed black line is the neckline of a slanted head and shoulders reversal pattern and has a projected target of ~75. Yellow warning flag #4.

6)      Volume has been increasing since the July peak which confirms the bears are currently in control. Yellow warning flag #5.

So as to what this all means, I would expect to see further downside and price find eventual support around the 75 level. This level is a confluence of the H&S price objective and longer-term major support. If it gets there we’ll have to evaluate because that might provide an attractive buying opportunity.

COST - Buying in bulk

Come on. Admit it. You love to go to Costco as much as I do.

I wish when I needed mayonnaise I didn’t have to buy the 5 gallon jug or 144 rolls of toilet paper but hey, when we leave we are feeling good because we got some great deals.

The fundamental story Zacks makes says it nicely … “Costco continues to be a dominant retail wholesaler based on the range and quality of merchandise it offers. The company’s strategy of selling products at heavily discounted prices has helped it to sustain growth as budget-conscious customers continue to see it as a viable option for low-cost necessities.”

The current chart of Costco (COST) shows it had a 14% pullback that started in December of last year and bottoming finally in February. Notice how the bottom came in right at levels that have previously acted as support a number of times in the past. It has since chopped around looking to start a new trend. Chop or consolidation occurs when the bulls and bears are evenly matched with neither having a strategic advantage.  But we know that will eventually changes and long term investors prefer to invest in stocks that are trending not chopping sideways. The question is, will this resolve to the upside? Interestingly, it has created what looks to me as a bullish cup and handle continuation pattern that, if it breaks out of, projects to new all-time highs for the stock. The fact we had a golden cross on the moving averages earlier this week is in strong support of the bullish argument.

While the bullish case is compelling, Costco will not be immune to a fall if the market goes through a summer swoon. The logical levels of support if it does is first around 97 and then 92 where it gapped up.

Whether or not you’re a buyer or seller of their stock doesn’t take away from the fact, if you are like me, it’s  impossible to walk out without spending more than a hundred dollars (usually much more), which if you think about it, is another bullish argument for the stock.

$BKX - Banks - Topping or popping?

The significance of the banking sector in the stock market cannot be understated for several reasons. First, the banking sector offers important clues regarding the overall health of the economy. Secondly, a strong banking sector is one of the cornerstones of a robust capital market. Finally, the financial services sector is a significant portion of the U.S. equity market due to its weighting within the S&P 500, 16%. Making it the second-largest within the S&P 500 behind technology. For these reasons I watch the movement of the banking index for stock market directional hints but most importantly as a health scorecard of the overall stock market.  If bank stocks are rising and strongly bullish, the broad market should follow.  The opposite, as you would expect, holds true too.

The chart below is that of the bank index. After making post 2009 highs in March, the index had a minor correction in May falling 9% down to 66.91.  Since then I have been watching closely to see if new highs were going to be made. If not, that would raise a cautionary flag because if we print a lower high, this COULD be the start of a downside reversal. Three other reasons for concern are 1) as of today price broke down out of the bear flag which I have highlighted in brown; 2) if early July’s high holds, we have potentially formed an inverse head and shoulders (IH&S) reversal pattern and 3) we have negative divergence on both oscillators which tells us upside momentum is waning.

In the natural ebb and flow of the stock market, prices rise and fall and after the May-July rally I would expect the banking index to come under some weakness whereby price could understandably fall back to the blue support rail.  If downside momentum persists and support does not hold, the next logical target would be ~61, (the target for the IH&S pattern). Interestingly, this level coincides exactly with the prior low printed last October.

Of course, all of these warning flags get negated if the bulls can pop prices higher, closing above 72.91 thereby making new highs. Either way it goes, I expect this summer-fall season will be more exciting than the past 2 years and may present us with some wonderful investment opportunities, including maybe even the banking sector.

Pall - Wont you be my friend?

Ever since palladium broke out of its multi-year triangle pattern at the start of March (see chart below) I was an interested buyer.

The naysayers and fundamentalists were presenting a plethora of reasons why it was not going to work out or only be fleeting, but price told us it was worth taking a shot. Interestingly enough for the first half of 2014, it is the best performing precious metal (if you consider it precious) and third best performing base metal (if you consider it base). It goes without saying its 20% return crushed that of stocks and bonds.

As with other commodities it is hard to invest outside of futures contracts. Palladium does have an ETF which tracks the price reasonably well (PALL) but is pretty thinly traded so be careful. Looking ahead, I see further upside as the moving averages are all bullishly configured and we are in a strong uptrend as price is making higher highs and higher lows.  While all looks very good at this juncture we have the possibility of a double top being formed so vigilance is required.

For those that missed the boat, I would not chase it here. For those who caught it, congratulations and watch the lower blue trend line and open gap for areas for support or change in direction inflection point as a place to take profits.

TAN - Pass the Sunscreen, please

As a part of the momentum stock selloff that occurred in May, solar stocks were severely punished, most losing 30% or more. The long term prospect for alternative energy, especially solar I believe is quite compelling.  Being the tightwad I am, when I see an overreaction pushing prices unnecessarily low in an investment that has excellent long term fundamentals, I start to salivate as I smell an opportunity to make money.

TAN, the solar stock  ETF, lost in excess of 30% during the March selloff, while the broader market index, the SP500, was able to eek out a tiny gain.  That is quite a divergence. Solar stocks, like many other names had gone too far too fast, became overbought, overstretched and warranted a correction. The market faithfully provided just what was needed.

You can see in the TAN chart below the March to May 30% decline. It subsequently broke out above the blue, dotted down trend line and marched nicely higher, up more than 25% from the bottom. Right now you can see we are sitting just under a (solid gold) resistance line where price stalled and fell back. The bulls didn't have enough in the tank to get it above  resistance. Those who are long have to wonder if this it or does it have more legs for another push higher?

As a long-term investor, success comes from investing with positions that are trending higher and avoiding those that are not.  Once that trend changes, it’s time to find another sandbox to play in. We can see that from the bottom, at 36.93, we have made higher highs and higher lows which is the definition of an uptrend. That combined with a MACD that is above zero, above its signal line and an RSI trending upwards and above its moving average provides strong technical reasoning to be long this stock. As long as the stock market continues to want to push higher, the first upside target is 10-12% higher with the potential for much more.

Please don’t take this as a recommendation to buy TAN. Momentum stocks are not for the uninitiated and should be respected for their volatility . If we do eventually see a market correction this summer/fall it is very likely this and momentum stocks in general will be in for a repeat pummeling, potentially even greater than what was seen in March. If that were to occur, that would be better time for us "value" (read tightwad) investors to leave the sunscreen at home and go get a TAN .

Invest safe!