What You Want vs. What You Need

“The best way to destroy the capitalist system is to debauch the currency. By a continuing process of inflation governments can confiscate, secretly and unobserved, an important part of the wealth of their citizens.” - John Maynard Keynes

 “Inflation is when you pay fifteen dollars for the ten-dollar haircut you used to get for five dollars when you had hair.” ― Sam Ewing

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We all understand the destructive effects of inflation has over time but what happens when inflation is as low as it has been over the past 20 years? What you say, inflation has not been low? Your personal experiences says otherwise? Our Government’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) begs to differ. Prices on average over the past 20 years has been 55.6% which works out to be an annualized rate of ~2.02%. One of the lowest 20 year periods …. Ever. So who’s right?

 The problem as we uncover when peeling back the onion, is how the BLS calculates its numbers. To avoid going down that rat hole into a hornets nest, it’s safe to say that inflation is the sum of the prices of things that are rising and the rest that are rising more. Unfortunately, as it works out, the things that you want are rising while the things you need are the things that are rising more. This has never been so apparent than in the most recent 20-year data presented in the chart below.

 One scrutinizing the chart may point out that food and beverage prices (a need) have been rising at an “average” rate. The devil is in the details here too. Looking under the hood you will see the things that are healthier (unprocessed and natural foods) are rising at a much faster rate than things like fast food. Oh and while I do have some millennial readers, no, cellphone service is NOT a thing you need.

A Bubble or the Next Safe Haven?

Digital currencies have caught most investors off-guard. Are they here to stay or just another beanie baby investment fad?

September 2017 Charts on the Move Video

With 3/4 of the year in the books, the US stock market is moving towards a very bullish seasonality period. If nuclear bombs and Washington tweet bombs cant bring it down are we setup for a year-end barnburner? My recap of September can be seen in the video link below.

https://youtu.be/YcmxMQ4ZC-g

Amazon as a Verb

WW Grainger, a company who has been around since 1927 serving more than 3 million customer has increased revenues and dividends for 45 years straight.  They act as a distributor (mostly) to businesses providing products, inventory management and support. In spite of their success and glorious history, their stock, GWW, has been hit hard losing more than 35% since the start of the year. Back in April during the elevator down decline, you can see what looks like capitulatory volume as it almost 4x the weekly average. In case its not clear, capitulatory volume is where a very large amount of investor throw in the towel and sell their stock. This was eventually followed by a short, reflexive counter-trend bounce and then increased selling pressure taking the stock lower. This is a pattern that repeats so it is worthwhile recognizing what is likely to happen next as it eventually will present an investment opportunity. Since we are approaching a critical support area, I would expect buyers to step in and the stock to find a bottom in the coming weeks. This bottom will likely form positive momentum divergence and provide the opportunity for at least a tradeable bounce due to how far we are below the red 200 day moving average.  When looking for opportunities we cannot forget one of the most powerful investment forces, reversion to the mean.

While I try not to spend too much time on the “why’s” because they will only be known for certain in the rear view mirror. WWG’s recent demise, as far as I can tell, has been nothing more than investors fear that Amazon has them in their sites and and eventually put them out of business. As in the company is being "Amazoned”.  Because of this ongoing phenomenon I am officially adding Amazon to my list of businesses or products that become so successful they are used as nouns and/or verbs.

I am going to stop this post here as I have to get some “Kleenex” to wipe off the “White Out” that I spilled while “Jet Skiing” in my “Jacuzzi” on my way to “Xerox” a paper and "Skype" a friend.

Two Notable Breakouts

While the broader indexes were choppy and non-committal, two markets broke out above long-term resistance to new highs last week. The first inside the US, the biotech sector, IBB, had tried to get above the $300 level at least 4 times in the past year and a half and failed each time. Apparently the fifth time was the charm as it surged almost 10% last week on huge (>3x) volume. This has room to run as it used a rising 200 day moving average as a trampoline.  $340 should provide near term resistance but if this has legs the rectangle pattern target is $360 and above that, the prior $400 high.

The second breakout occurred in the Taiwanese stock market. This chart below goes back 21 years so the fact their market broke out above this level on its fifth attempt is more confirmation of investors (current) desire for risk assets. Whether this is due to the lack of interest in bonds or just an extension of this bull market only time will tell. Regardless, a break to all-time highs in such an important financial market as Taiwan can be viewed as extremely bullish. 

When looking at alternative markets, it’s important to view them in context of the US and global indexes. It makes no sense to commit financial capital unless the alternative can outperform your current holdings. In the bottom pane of the chart below is the plot of the Taiwan market against the SP500.  As you can see it has been in a steep downtrend lagging the SP500 since 2009 by 50%.  What should stand out is the ratio has bottomed and has made (ever so) slightly higher highs and higher lows, signaling a high probability the downtrend has ended and a reversal is at hand.